Both in the event the CBOE future expired now, in the event the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there was an important loss of the bitcoin price. Both futures has quite a low volume and I would reckon that they are covered with a single liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex maker is most probably short the longer term and perchance long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit if your price is low where you can border after settlement in the event the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a very bad settlement processes which are an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE it is the auction price for Gemini – a young with a tiny volume usually.
CME’s model is way better, however not very good, VWAP on the four major exchanges a very good idea, in case that VWAP is calculated on only one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the quantity on this type of brief time span is very limited. Even when many large participants might have interests in any of those settlement processes they’d almost certainly have the identical position and advantages from the same side from the market manipulation. The VWAP will need to have been calculated over several hours instead). Concluding is the fact that we likely will see a lot of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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