Both once the CBOE future expired and today, once the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there was clearly a substantial decline in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume i would estimate that they may be covered with one single liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex maker is usually short the long run and perchance long lots of. At expiry, they’ll profit when the costs are low this will let you border after settlement in the event the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an incredibly bad settlement processes which are easy to manipulate. For CBOE it’s the auction price for Gemini – a young which has a tiny volume generally.
CME’s model is better, but still lower, VWAP about the four major exchanges a very good idea, but when that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the volume on a real brief time span is quite limited. Regardless if many large participants could have interests in almost any of the settlement processes they’d almost certainly have similar position and benefits from precisely the same side with the market manipulation. The VWAP should have been calculated over hrs instead). In conclusion is we likely will discover a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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