Both once the CBOE future expired and after this, if the CME bitcoin future is originating settlement, there was clearly an important decrease in the bitcoin price. Both futures has quite a low volume and i also would guess that these are covered with one liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex maker is most probably short the future and perhaps long lots of. At expiry, they’ll profit if the prices are low and have a border after settlement when the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an incredibly bad settlement processes that are easy to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a tender which has a tiny volume generally.
CME’s model is better, but nonetheless lower, VWAP for the four major exchanges is a good idea, but if that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the amount on a real brief time span is incredibly limited. Even when many large participants would have interests in almost any of these settlement processes they’d almost certainly have similar position and advantages of precisely the same side in the market manipulation. The VWAP should have been calculated over many hours instead). In conclusion is the fact that we likely will see a large amount of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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