Were closely watching the Crypto Currency Market when you can call it that, with all the fake data, fraud, and related problems. One thing sticks out – it’s not so diverse from FX, commodities, futures, or stocks. Market dynamics are market dynamics. And because so many readers of this fine site will know – the majority of traders lose. There’s been analysis done with this, we all know how this ends. A few early investors create a bundle and thousands or millions even are still holding the bag. From one perspective, a bubble is much like a ponzi scheme. In MLM, there are many who break the bank – the founders.
Unless you are the founder – how can you tell which Crypto will likely be the subsequent Bitcoin? You really don’t. You have no idea. You can turn to Korea and do every one of the required research you would like, in reality that there is no-one to understand the future and even a top analyst might be wrong from time to time.
Quant traders have similar doctrine all of them share – they are smart enough to learn how stupid they may be. They know their particular flaws plus they post to a higher power- that’s Artificial Intelligence.
Computing power is now so massive that it is entirely possible that you can now off their own house office create a smart automated program that does well. Obviously, just like the laws of market dynamics, you can also build a robot that’s worth exactly zero – a large pile of crap. When a quant makes an algorithm it’s either priceless or worthless. If it works, she has effectively created a wealth creation machine. If it doesn’t work, there isn’t any value to anyone not even academics.
So how do you know what method works, how to build a working bot or get one? There are obvious conflicts appealing in those who sell bots. The internet has been dominated by good marketeers, while profitable quants mostly maintain their ways to themselves. Selling something, and trading a robot, are really 2 different skills.
Crypto so far has shown just like most markets: impossible to trade.
Although many are kicking themselves because of buying and holding, I will tell you like a trader and that i speak for several in the room that there’s not a way I might have had the patience to sit on the hugely profitable position for several years even though the price goes parabolic.
This is exactly why quants develop and trade algorithms – picking entries and exits may be brain-destroying. There are dangers and risks with robots too needless to say, but you are of the different nature.
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